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The latest Americas pre-order data shows that Modern Warfare 2 is the clear winner - already trending ahead of Halo 3: ODST depite launching 6 weeks later. VGChartz expects the title to sell over 3 million copies in America alone in the first few days, which would surpass Grand Theft Auto 4 as the biggest videogame launch of all time.
Position |Game Platform Preorders
1 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 |X360 627,567
2 Halo 3: ODST |X360 605,850
3 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 |PS3 196,541
4 Batman: Arkham Asylum |PS3 108,130
5 Dissidia: Final Fantasy | PSP 102,843
6 Assassin's Creed 2 | X360 88,402
7 Metroid Prime: Trilogy | Wii 87,170
8 Tekken 6 | PS3 84,451
9 The Beatles: Rock Band |Wii 83,005
10 Batman: Arkham Asylum |X360 81,688
Modern Warfare 2 and ODST are the clear winners but whereas ODST releases in five weeks time, Modern Warfare 2 still has another three months to go before release - based on this data we expect week 1 sales for Modern Warfare 2 to be close to 3 million units on PS3 and Xbox360 combined.
The final week of August could potentially have four titles launching to sales of over 150,000 - Batman: Arkham Asylum on 360 and PS3 (interestingly the PS3 version seems to be leading the way), Dissidia Final Fantasy and Metroid Prime Trilogy.
Looking ahead to September, Beatles: Rock Band is clearly outperforming Guitar Hero 5 in preorders (by over 2:1), ODST should be good for a 1.5 million opening and Marvel Ultimate Alliance looks like being a strong performer.
It is important to understand how to interpret these figures - week 1 sales can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy from preorders (typically week one sales will be about 50% higher than final preorders), but only when taking into account the following points:
- A game will obviously pick up more and more preorders closer to launch so games launching sooner will be better represented in this list than those launching in a few months time
- Preordering will favour core titles over casual titles - games like Guitar Hero 5 and New Super Mario Bros Wii will perform far better than indicated by preorders - especially in week 2 and beyond
- Stores will often not take preorders for a title unless it has a fixed release date so this explains why a number of titles aren't present.
As with all data on VGChartz, there will be margins of error on these figures (+/-10% generally) but it gives a clear idea of where consumers are placing their preorders at the moment and which titles should be dominating the charts in coming months.
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---------- Post added at 01:10 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:09 PM ----------
Sorry about formatting, I left spaces but that obviously didn't work