it isnt based on by how many care packages you throw, its individual % based from each care package, although i do agree, its prob not completely accurate, as i said i cant find the original post, they were closer to the actual percentages
Isn't that the same thing though? Individual probabilty is the same as collective probability in that as the number of packages thrown rises the probability (percentage) also rises.
And to get an individual probabilty percentage then the most logical thing to do would be throw a high number of care packages, preferably something extreme like 10,000 and take note of every single one, then take an average and turn it in to the percentage. 10,000 care packages would give a pretty accurate result.