Post: Need your opinion on a hypothetical situation.
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11-30-2011, 07:01 PM
#1
mman259
Brute
Before i say this scenario, let me remind you that it is hypothetical. Nobody in this scenario is getting scammed, there are no tricks etc. The situation is purely fictional, but in this situation, you will not be scammed. If you lose, you will have lost fairly.
You are in town and a man approaches you. He says that if you are willing to risk $20, you have an unknown chance to get $200,000 back. It can be anywhere from 1% to 100%. It will be a random percentage. He will then take 100 straws and color each option (whether you win or lose) a different color. So if it is 99%, 99 sticks will be one color and the 1 other stick will be another. He will then choose a random straw out of the pile.
Now, you are fairly well off and losing $20 won't negatively affect you in any way.
My friend says it is bad to gamble at all, but i say if the risk is low enough and the benefit is high enough, you should do it. I then said, however, if it was an amount of money that would negatively impact you to lose, you shouldn't do it. (Note that I do not gamble)
My question is, would you risk it?
11-30-2011, 08:25 PM
#6
xSiiK---AT0MIK
ಠ_ಠ
11-30-2011, 08:36 PM
#7
PsYcHoSiS
Eatin' poopy
Originally posted by mman259
I got into an argument with my friend, and presented him with this scenario to prove my point:
Before i say this scenario, let me remind you that it is hypothetical. Nobody in this scenario is getting scammed, there are no tricks etc. The situation is purely fictional, but in this situation, you will not be scammed. If you lose, you will have lost fairly.
You are in town and a man approaches you. He says that if you are willing to risk $20, you have an unknown chance to get $200,000 back. It can be anywhere from 1% to 100%. It will be a random percentage. He will then take 100 straws and color each option (whether you win or lose) a different color. So if it is 99%, 99 sticks will be one color and the 1 other stick will be another. He will then chose a random straw out if the pile.
Now, you are fairly well off and losing $20 won't negatively affect you in any way.
My friend says it is bad to gamble at all, but i say if the risk is low enough and the benefit is high enough, you should do it. I then said, however, if it was an amount of money that would negatively impact you to lose, you shouldn't do it. (Note that I do not gamble)
My question is, would you risk it?
Before i say this scenario, let me remind you that it is hypothetical. Nobody in this scenario is getting scammed, there are no tricks etc. The situation is purely fictional, but in this situation, you will not be scammed. If you lose, you will have lost fairly.
You are in town and a man approaches you. He says that if you are willing to risk $20, you have an unknown chance to get $200,000 back. It can be anywhere from 1% to 100%. It will be a random percentage. He will then take 100 straws and color each option (whether you win or lose) a different color. So if it is 99%, 99 sticks will be one color and the 1 other stick will be another. He will then chose a random straw out if the pile.
Now, you are fairly well off and losing $20 won't negatively affect you in any way.
My friend says it is bad to gamble at all, but i say if the risk is low enough and the benefit is high enough, you should do it. I then said, however, if it was an amount of money that would negatively impact you to lose, you shouldn't do it. (Note that I do not gamble)
My question is, would you risk it?
YES!!
1/100 chance you'll win
10,000 times reward
If you tried 10 times the odds would be even.
11-30-2011, 09:31 PM
#8
mman259
Brute
Originally posted by PsYcHoSiS
YES!!
1/100 chance you'll win
10,000 times reward
If you tried 10 times the odds would be even.
1/100 chance you'll win
10,000 times reward
If you tried 10 times the odds would be even.
Originally posted by Sexy
Yes! That's a 10,000 times return on the $20. The lowest possible chance is 1/99. It's a random number, so it could be much higher. Do you know what the odds on most lotteries are? For a $250,000 lottery, the odds are 1:3.9 million.
Say you try once. If you lose, worst case scenario is you lose $20 right? This was the point i was trying to make. The worst case scenario will not bankrupt you, so why not try?
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