Post: Estimated odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID using PSID Patch.
02-09-2013, 02:50 AM #1
baconpie
Save Point
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); So, you're banned from PSN/want to protect your CFW PS3 from getting banned. You check these forums, and discover that with a valid Console ID and PSID Patch you can unban/protect your PS3 from ban.

Problem is, you don't have a valid PS3 Console ID. But PSID Patch has an option to randomize your Console ID. The question is, what are the odds that a randomly generated Console ID will end up being valid?

PS3 Console IDs are 32 hexadecimal digits, followed by 32 null/zero digits. The number of possible combinations from 0x32 to Fx32 is 340282366920938463463374607431768211456. According to Wikipedia, the PS3 has sold 77 million units worldwide. That means the odds of randomly generating a valid Console ID are 77000000 in 340282366920938463463374607431768211456, which roughly translates to 1 in 4.4192515×10[SUP]30[/SUP].

To put that in perspective, according to Wolfram Alpha the estimated number of grains of sand in the entire world ranges from 1×10[SUP]20[/SUP] to 1×10[SUP]24[/SUP]. You're over a billion times more likely to randomly pick one "correct" grain of sand from all the grains of sand from all the beaches and oceans of the entire planet.

Good luck.


EDIT: So I just learned (with help from ItsDark's and sarracen's comments) that You must login or register to view this content.. PSID Patch does not change the first 16 digits of a console ID for this reason. This means a few things. For starters, there are 1.8×10[SUP]19[/SUP] possible 16-digit hexadecimal combinations, which is significantly less than the 3.4×10[SUP]38[/SUP] possible 32-digit hexadecimal combinations I was dealing with in my previous odds calculations. However, it also means I cannot use worldwide PS3 sales figures in my calculations, as different regions have different Target IDs locked to their region, meaning each Target ID has its own sales figures that needs to be used in place of the 77 million I was using earlier. This is further complicated when you factor in the different SKUs, since each Target ID/sales region has different sales figures for each of the many PS3 SKUs/model numbers.

I tried searching for PS3 sales figures by region and by model/SKU, but all I could come up with was this You must login or register to view this content. that shows sales figures for Japan, Europe, and the US; and You must login or register to view this content. about UK sales figures. I have no idea how the remaining 34 million PS3 sales are divided amongst the 7 other Target IDs. I found nothing on sales figures for different SKUs.

So, time to make wild guesses. I'll divide the 34 million unaccounted for sales evenly amongst the remaining 7 Target IDs. I'll also divide the sales for each region evenly amongst all PS3 SKUs/models available in that region. It's not going to be 100% accurate, but considering the extremely large numbers we're dealing with, it should be reasonably close.


Region US Japan Europe UK Korea Mexico Australia/NZ South Asia Taiwan Russia Hong Kong
Sales Figures (in millions) 12 6.3 19.7 5 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP] 4.8[SUP]1[/SUP]
Number of SKUs 13 13 11 11 9 9 11 13 13 11 13
Odds of Randomly Generating a Valid Console ID[SUP]2[/SUP] 1 in 2.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.81×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 1.03×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.06×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 3.46×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 4.23×10[SUP]13[/SUP] 1 in 5.00×10[SUP]13[/SUP]


[SUP]1[/SUP] - Estimated
[SUP]2[/SUP] - Obtained by using the formula "1 in" 18446744073709551616/(Sales Figures/Number of SKUs)

So, not quite as astronomical as originally thought, but still damn near impossible.
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02-09-2013, 08:07 PM #20
justeve
< ^ > < ^ >
I think a list of banned ids may help your cause in finding generating a id.
It always starts with 00000001008X000XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
i believe you may have change at least 4 letters or numbers to create a valid id
02-09-2013, 08:19 PM #21
Dannie Fresh
Bounty hunter
Originally posted by RYUYA View Post
00000001008200031007652638976900000000000000000000 000000000000

Not work.....

Error 8002A224


cus the 10082 of the id is dex needs to be spoofed to you region example 10087 for uk
02-09-2013, 08:23 PM #22
MMC.TM - MGeoff
Do a barrel roll!
Originally posted by woohoo12345 View Post
cus the 10082 of the id is dex needs to be spoofed to you region example 10087 for uk


Thx reply!
but doesnt work
thx...
02-09-2013, 09:03 PM #23
Mbb
Haxor!
I got 2 console ID's from an elektronic store, the odds were 2/2
02-09-2013, 09:39 PM #24
Originally posted by XxUnkn0wnxX View Post
like i said why not make a program on PC or a hombrew app on the PS3 that will keep generating a console id's and PSID's as second option and keep trying 2 sign in with the console id it generates until it manages 2 hit a valid 1 and store it in a text file called valid ids or something. this way u can leave it running on PC 24/7 or on the PS3 when u go 2 bed...

it would be going for more then over night thats the issue
02-09-2013, 11:35 PM #25
scott7seven
I am error
hmmm, i dontknow, i agree with unknown, ive seen pc programs spit out numbers really fast
02-10-2013, 01:15 AM #26
iTruceFret
[move]From now on, call me DRAGON.[/move]
How 2 install?
02-10-2013, 01:17 AM #27
add me on skype ill pm you it
02-10-2013, 02:15 AM #28
baconpie
Save Point
Originally posted by scott7seven View Post
hmmm, i dontknow, i agree with unknown, ive seen pc programs spit out numbers really fast


I'll just quote myself here:
Originally posted by Me
such a program would likely be a waste of time. Such a program would need to try every 16-digit hexadecimal combination for every Target ID and every SKU possible. That's 18446744073709551616*11*13=2637884402540465881088 possible combinations. Since attempting to sign in to PSN is not an instantaneous process, testing all those combinations would take an absurd amount of time. Even at one attempt per second (which would be fast considering how long it normally takes to communicate with the PSN servers), it would take 6100 times longer than the current age of the universe to test them all. If all 1.2 billion PCs in the world today were to run such a program, and no two PCs attempted the same combination, it would still take 69659 years to finish testing all possible combinations.


So, yeah. It wouldn't matter how fast the program can run. It would still take decades before finding a single valid ID.

Originally posted by iTruceFret View Post
How 2 install?


I think you might be posting in the wrong topic. There's nothing to install here.

Originally posted by DeeThe501 View Post
add me on skype ill pm you it


You're definitely posting in the wrong topic. This topic is just about the odds of randomly generating a valid console ID.

Originally posted by justeve View Post
I think a list of banned ids may help your cause in finding generating a id.
It always starts with 00000001008X000XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
i believe you may have change at least 4 letters or numbers to create a valid id


For starters, I'm not trying to find a valid ID. Furthermore, as there is no way to add some sort of blacklist to the PSID Patch console ID randomizer, such a list would not prove very useful. In addition, not all console IDs start with 00000001008X000X. Some start with 0000000100A0XXXX.

Originally posted by RYUYA View Post
00000001008200031007652638976900000000000000000000000000000000

Not work.....:FU:

Error 8002A224


Wrong topic. You want to post You must login or register to view this content..

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