i think microsoft will win simply because of 3 main factors:
1. Too many Xbox fanboys/girls
2. Kids love the name "Xbox" and you'll find most kids aged say 12 and under will go Xbox
3. Xbox is aimed at splash marketing and trying to cater for everyone and isn't specific to the Gaming community.
In short, Ps4 is for REAL gamers, of which are people who were born in the 80's-90's era when Playstation dominated the industry, now a days its not appealing to kids as kids love kids stuff like halo and stuff, fact is your Xbox fanboys and base customers are likely to be 10-17 year olds who their mates will buy Xbox simply because their friends are on it and they can play together, not because its the better console (because we know that isn't true).
Xboxs tactics are to entice kids with "microsoft points" and "GamerScores" and fluffy cheap shit to make kids desire it more, naming things like Microsoft "GOLD" is more attracting to kids than "Playstation plus" even though Ps+ is worth its values 5x more than paying twice to play online with Xbox.
The Ps4 fanbase is built up of older more grizzled gamers who are brand loyal and wouldn't make the switch even if it killed them because they are true gamers and prefer the gameplay, games and exclusives that come with the Sony branding.
I've managed to convert 5 die hard Xbox fanboys to Ps3 and they've loved the switch and can't understand why they liked Xbox. the fact of the matter is, if sony wants to win this console war it has to attract that "kiddy" area of the market (which us true gamers wouldn't like at all as i'm sure we'd prefer it if screaming 6 year old faggits playing rap music down their mics stuck with their shitboxes).
TL

R Xbox has younger fanbase which is more than Playstations gaming community fanbase, Xbox has customers from age 6-22 whereas Sony has majority of customers aged between 16-30.
Population of kids aged 6-16 > populations of gamers aged 20-30 = Xbox wins even though PS should win hands down.