Has anyone ever heard of the Drake Equation?
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where:
R* is the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fℓ is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space
The estimates for which are:
R* = 7/year (7 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)
fp = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)
ne = 2 (stars with planets will have 2 planets capable of supporting life)
fl = 0.33 (33% of these planets will develop life)
fi = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)
fc = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years)
N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 2.31
Therefore we
should at this point be able to detect at least two other intelligent species within the galaxy.
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