Post: Nuke Probability
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05-21-2010, 11:05 PM
#1
Paul
Edwards
What is the probability of getting a nuke?
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
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This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
You must login or register to view this content.
This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
The following 22 users say thank you to Paul for this useful post:
05-21-2010, 11:08 PM
#3
GingerNigga
Banned
05-21-2010, 11:09 PM
#6
DEREKTROTTER
You're Goddamn Right
and dude nukes are hard to come by now because you get someone trying to boost while youre trying to do it legitly.
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