Post: Nuke Probability
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05-21-2010, 11:05 PM
#1
Paul
Edwards
What is the probability of getting a nuke?
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
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This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
You must login or register to view this content.
This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
The following 22 users say thank you to Paul for this useful post:
05-22-2010, 10:25 AM
#29
Da Only OG
Trollin Since '09
05-22-2010, 10:41 AM
#30
The following user thanked JimErased for this useful post:
05-22-2010, 10:57 AM
#31
D-Lyden's Hoe
Banned
Originally posted by Paul
Yes, you are 65 times more likely, not sure why I wrote 65 million, I was quite tired by this point!
As I said, it all varies completely, the probability can get from 0% up to 100%, just depends on how the fights go.
.
As I said, it all varies completely, the probability can get from 0% up to 100%, just depends on how the fights go.
.
Oh lol :p, well either way, nice thread buddy, I enjoyed reading it.
05-22-2010, 05:01 PM
#32
BooshMayne
oɹq ʎɹoʇs ןןıɥɔ
05-23-2010, 12:12 AM
#35
05-23-2010, 12:16 AM
#37
i H e a r n y x
Gym leader
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