Post: Nuke Probability
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05-21-2010, 11:05 PM
#1
Paul
Edwards
What is the probability of getting a nuke?
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
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This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
You must login or register to view this content.
This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
The following 22 users say thank you to Paul for this useful post:
05-22-2010, 08:46 AM
#21
Paul
Edwards
Originally posted by Tall31
Lol elementary school math to determine the probability of getting a nuke. As for using the scenario of a coin toss being 50/50 its not. Fun fact of the day. The lighter side of the coin faces up more so than the side that is heavier. This is where the phrase tails never fails comes from of course tails often being the lighter side of the coin. However, the difference between the two is very small.
Well I could have used University mathematics, but since people wouldn't understand it, it would be pointless yes?
As for the coin tautology, the difference nowadays is so minute on standard coins it really isn't a legitimate factor in what side it will land on, it is effectively random.
If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all.
05-22-2010, 08:56 AM
#24
D-Lyden's Hoe
Banned
.
05-22-2010, 09:56 AM
#28
Cyber Altair
League Champion
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