Post: Nuke Probability
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05-21-2010, 11:05 PM
#1
Paul
Edwards
What is the probability of getting a nuke?
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
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This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
You must login or register to view this content.
This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
The following 22 users say thank you to Paul for this useful post:
05-25-2010, 05:40 PM
#48
+sT Iridion
Gym leader
Originally posted by deathmore
Good theory but there's a flaw. Lets start with a coin, a coin has 2 sides so mathematically 50:50 probability, but in reality this can be altered to what out come you want by flicking at the time position and the right amount of power.
Now here's another probability conundrum, if you are going into a hall and you want to use it so there's two out comes, you can use it if its empty, or you cant since somebody is already using it. Now what if there are 3 others often use this hall so that means there's a 1/4 chance that you can use the room.
So what I'm getting at here is there's more to consider such as if the person can aim, if they have comando, or heart beat or they're camping. Also you haven't considered about the person you killed is really rubbish, so gauranteed 99% chance of killing that individual.
Of course your theory is indeed Mathematically correct, but in reality there is not such thing as probability. It's all about at the right place at the right time.
Now here's another probability conundrum, if you are going into a hall and you want to use it so there's two out comes, you can use it if its empty, or you cant since somebody is already using it. Now what if there are 3 others often use this hall so that means there's a 1/4 chance that you can use the room.
So what I'm getting at here is there's more to consider such as if the person can aim, if they have comando, or heart beat or they're camping. Also you haven't considered about the person you killed is really rubbish, so gauranteed 99% chance of killing that individual.
Of course your theory is indeed Mathematically correct, but in reality there is not such thing as probability. It's all about at the right place at the right time.
okay? sorta long :y:
05-27-2010, 08:00 PM
#50
FuzzaMuzza
NGU Master
05-27-2010, 09:27 PM
#52
NeedaLifeSoon
Retired Life
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