Post: Nuke Probability
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05-21-2010, 11:05 PM
#1
Paul
Edwards
What is the probability of getting a nuke?
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
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This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
Whilst I am sure this isn't an oft-wondered question, I thought of it yesterday and thought I'd explain it all!
We know from statistics, that if an occurance can have two outcomes, each are just as likely unless biased. Take the flipping fo a coin, it is equally likely to land on heads or tails.
We say for each flip it has a 50% chance to land on heads or a 50% chance to land on tails.
If we transfer this knowledge to Modern Warfare 2, we get the following:
You must login or register to view this content.
This image tells us that in a fight between two characters, we have a 50% chance of dying or a 50% chance of winning the fight. (Killing them).
Rules of probability state that, if your chances of getting a kill is 50% (0.5), then the probability of getting two kills without dying is (0.5 x 0.5) = 0.25 = 25%.
Therefore, the probability of getting a nuke is equal to:
0.5^25
Or, for the long handed people:
0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5. (!!).
This gives us the statistical probability of getting a nuke as:
2.98023224 × 10^-8
This roughly means you are 65 times more likely to get struck by lightning than to get a nuke in Call of Duty.
I hope this was an interesting venture into statistics and probability, yes I am aware that the actual probability is different due to different odds (vs. some people you may be 99% likely to win due to skill etc, this is just a mathematical generalisation).
:love:.
The following 22 users say thank you to Paul for this useful post:
05-22-2010, 04:17 AM
#17
Ice In My Veins
Bounty hunter
Its funny that all the people are like WTf?!?! when that is just simple math, but anyways, good idea to calculate that. Generally when you kill someone or someone kills you, you're not facing each other, IE you're behind him or whatever, so your probability of killing him is somewhere about 90%, and if he is behind you same chance for him. Also you have to take into account killstreak rewards when your chance of getting kills greatly increases but your chance of death greatly increases if it is a controllable killstreak. Also there are functions in the game itself that skew the odds in a firefight. You know when you shoot him 5 times with SPP and he shoots you twice with Cold Blooded and you die? It's not bullshit, the game makes it happen on purpose. There are times that you absolutely rape and kill everyone in two shots, and there are other times where it will take 3 shots with an Intervention to kill, the game gives everyone a turn to do well. All-in-all every situation is different in Mw2 so its hard to say that every head to head has a 50-50 chance of killing or being killed, but I have to say this was a very good idea for a thread.
05-22-2010, 05:00 AM
#19
Tall31
Brute
Lol elementary school math to determine the probability of getting a nuke. As for using the scenario of a coin toss being 50/50 its not. Fun fact of the day. The lighter side of the coin faces up more so than the side that is heavier. This is where the phrase tails never fails comes from of course tails often being the lighter side of the coin. However, the difference between the two is very small.
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