Originally posted by E0000B6FAF25838
Probability is an illusion. If I have a bag with a white marble and a black marble in it, the probability of me pulling out a white marble is 1 in 2. However, I can just as easily pull a white marble out, put it back in, and pull the same marble out again. The odds of that are 1 in 4. However, regardless of the probability of doing something, it is still possible to do it. The odds of pulling a white marble out of the bag multiple times in a row are 1 in 2^x (where x = number of times you draw a marble). The odds of doing it 13 times in a row would be 1 in 8192, but it's still possible.
Giving an example of probability does not prove that probability is an illusion. What do you mean by that anyway? That doesn't make sense. I also never made any sort of claim regarding impossibilities.
Originally posted by E0000B6FAF25838
Probability has no bearing on anything, so your statement should have been "At small scales nothing is certain," as nothing is a case of probability.
Wrong. Absolutely, 100% wrong. EVERYTHING is a case of probability. Elementary particles are governed entirely by probability. A single electron can be at a single location, 15 locations at once, or nowhere at all. You can determine the probability of it being in a given spot, at a given velocity, etc., but you can't give concrete details. Einstein was quoted as saying "God does not play dice" because he was so disturbed by this. Nonetheless, this IS the way the universe works. It has been experimentally verified tenfold.
These are the best non-mathematical videos I could find on the subject (Lectures from Richard Feynman):
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Originally posted by lolwhut
Elaborate please. I don't quite understand what you are saying. I understand your logic that by causation everything can be traced back to the building blocks of the universe, however what is not deterministic about these particles? Certain properties about them are inconstant yes, but the particles themselves are constant entities no?
In addition to the information I posted above, I'll add some more. The wave function is a superposition of all possible states of a particle. You can determine the behavior of a particle based on these probabilities. This means that there is a (infinitesimally) small probability that, for example, one of the electrons in your body suddenly appears on mars.
There's also the well-known Heisenberg uncertainty principle which says that certain properties of particles cannot be simultaneously known, like position and velocity.
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Where x is position, p is momentum, and the h-looking symbol is Plank's constant (h) divided by 2 pi.
What this basically means is that an effect following a cause can only be predicted based on probabilities instead of concrete information. If there was a truly random coin that landed on heads 90% of the time and tails 10% of the time, you would expect to flip heads on your first go. If you indeed flipped heads, then you weren't predetermined to get heads because the event was completely probabilistic in nature. You COULD have flipped tails. The argument for determinism is that, given enough information about the starting conditions in the universe, you COULD in theory predict every possible event. Quantum uncertainty means that no event can be predicted with 100% accuracy.